There are some interesting rumors coming from the usual suspects, suggesting that Apple’s fall product update will not only bring the expected iPod refresh, but also a new Apple TV that may be called iTV. The interesting piece of that rumor is that the new set-top box may include the A4 processor and run on iOS 4.

Such a product would be consistent with Apple’s product strategy and even if some voiced some disappointment that the iTV may be stuck at 720p, there is the logical assumption that it will connect to the App Store. And if it does, it will open up apps to even larger displays than the iPad – your TV. Imagine running your app on a TV. What could it do? What about casual gaming on a TV? It’s entirely possible with an iOS-based iTV.

We may be speculating a bit here, but we believe that Apple will continue to eliminate the borders between different types of devices and eventually allow mobile, desktop and consumer electronics to access the App Store. The implications for iTV include the fact that the box may be bridging the gap into the gaming world and turn into a game console as well. If so, imagine iPods or iPhones to be used as game controllers. There is a whole new opportunity out there, provided Apple will take this step, which we do not know for sure will actually be the case.

However, it may be a good idea to start thinking about Apps that run on much higher resolutions than on the standard iPhone and iPad screen.

Blackhat has started and not surprisingly, there is quite a bit of information coming out of Las Vegas that relates to the iPhone. Lookout revealed some results from its App Genome project, which analyzed about 300,000 apps that are available for the iPhone and Android. Sometimes you get what you pay for and that may be true in the case of iPhone apps as well, in a rather negative way.

Lookout said that one third of free applications for the iPhone can potentially access a user’s location. 14% can access a user’s contacts and 23 of iPhone apps contain third party code. According to the company, new vulnerabilities will be unveiled at Blackhat, including mobile data leakage, which, however, seems to affect Android more than the iPhone.

Lookout noted that App developers need to “be more aware of best practices for accessing, transmitting and storing users’ personal data. In addition, consumers need to be aware of the permissions that mobile applications request and how that personal data is being used in the application.“

Sounds reasonable to us. Given its exposure, the iPhone has become a very attractive target platform for malicious intent. And boy, opening up the platform to all apps, whether they are App Store certified or not, may create an entirely different dimension of software threats.

So we have heard about Apple’s ginormous advertising deals for iAd, but it seems that Apple’s deals reach through to developers as well. One developer, Jason Ting, said that his LED flashlight app (LED Light for iPhone 4), which is offered as an ad-supported free version, turned in $1372.20 of advertising revenue in one day.

That revenue was based on 9000 downloads, 9300 ad impressions and a click-through rate of 11.8%. The eCPM rate came in at close to $150, which is about 100 times higher than what other mobile deals currently pay. And if you compare the deal against standard eCPM models, Apple’s pay is up to 300 times higher. Of course, Ting appears to be an extreme example, as we have heard other reports with much lower eCPM rates as well. And Ting’s revenue still includes Apple’s 40% cut.

Another developer, Kenneth Ballenegger, said that his eCPM was somewhere between $10 and $15. He also noted that iAd’s fill rate is at just 10% and the ad refresh rate is much lower than that of other ad networks and he, in fact, said that he expects iAd eCPM rates of just over $1 in the long run. In the end, the fill rate seems to be what is the biggest concern out there and it’s so low that, for many developers – those with extremely high ad views – it just does not replace Google yet. However, iAd just launched and like other networks it needs some time to ramp up. So let’s be patient.

We should be realistic about the eCPM rates. Of course, there’s a novelty to iAds and that certainly benefits developers right now. Eventually, the eCPM rate will fall, but we would expect the numbers to remain higher than on the desktop. You can run iAds and use other networks such as Google as a fallback option.

Most of us may scratching their heads over the question how to get some apps into the App Store in the first place. Mozilla, for example, is still hoping that its Home app is making the cut. Once you are in the store, it appears it’s a fair game and you can focus on marketing your app. But you can also do what  Thuat Nguyen has done and get booted from the store altogether. And if you heard about Nguyen already then you might be upset, but, realistically, it was just a matter of time until we would see some fraudulent exploit.

What happened is that Nguyen was able to occupy 42 of the top 50 sales positions in the App Store’s “book” category using bogus apps. Interestingly, when Nguyen’s apps appeared, there was also a spike in complaints of iTunes accounts being hacked and being overcharged. Apparently “only” a few hundred accounts were affected until Apple booted Nguyen, which is the good news. The bad news is, of course that the exploit happened and that it may have affected the credibility of tens of thousands of other developers.

Courtesy of Engadget, Apple has posted a statement, which reads:

The developer Thuat Nguyen and his apps were removed from the App Store for violating the developer Program License Agreement, including fraudulent purchase patterns.

Developers do not receive any iTunes confidential customer data when an app is downloaded.

If your credit card or iTunes password is stolen and used on iTunes we recommend that you contact your financial institution and inquire about canceling the card and issuing a chargeback for any unauthorized transactions. We also recommend that you change your iTunes account password immediately. For more information on best practices for password security visit http://www.apple.com/support/itunes.

The App Store and Apple’s tight grip on what is published and what not through, let’s be honest, a walled garden approach, has always promoted the idea of high quality applications and a sense of security that, for example, Google just can’t provide with Android. But it should be a wake-up call for app buyers as well as developers that the App Store can be exploited in way it was not designed for. This case may have been just a shot in front of the bow and the damage could have been worse.

Of course, Nguyen’s approach was a sure bet to get booted from the App Store and I’d be surprised if that was already everything we have heard about him and Apple. The App Store has been and still is a relatively safe environment to make purchase and I doubt Apple will risk this perception. But, personally, I would wish Apple would be a bit more vocal in its support for developers in this situation. And more vocal to calm potential concerns of consumers. Just silencing the topic does not always work.

A version of the good old neighborhood watch may be the best protection of the community against such fraudulent exploits. However, even on an individual level, you should be making sure that your reputation is not affected by such exploits. More and more consumers may be trying to find ways to determine whether an app is real or not and you should make it as easy as possible for them to figure that out. Make sure you have a functioning web site and an active support section. Make sure you can be contacted and maintain a public persona, perhaps through a Facebook page. Public exposure creates confidence and you can use this way to earn trust.

Vision Mobile has just posted one of the more impressive research reports and surveys that focus on mobile application development. This new report, called Mobile Developer Economics 2010: The migration of developer mindshare examines facts and emotions that guide developers these days in their efforts to make a living from app development. The survey included 400 developers across 8 platforms (iOS (iPhone), Android, Symbian, BlackBerry, Java ME, Windows Phone, Flash Lite, and mobile web.)

The 57 pages are easily considered a must read if you are interested in competitive app development, publishing and marketing in any way, as the data lets you keep an eye on your colleagues and rivals and possibly reveal one or the other surprise.

Vision Mobile’s survey found that Android is carrying the mind share right now, as 60% of its respondents said that they recently developed for that platform. iOS follows in second place and then, … well, then there is really nothing after that as far as mindshare migration is concerned as those two platforms are described as leading the “industrial revolution era” of the mobile app development space:

From the report: “The next five years will completely remap the mobile industry landscape. RIM and Apple, two verticalised companies, move into the top five, displacing the incumbents, leaving one Finnish and two Korean companies in pole position. The operating system landscape will consolidate into two tiers; the top-end open to iconic products dominated by Apple and followed by the iPhone clones powered by Android; and the feature-phone market where licensable operating systems (Android and BREW) will finally allow handset OEMs to move away from legacy RTOS platforms. Google’s Android will also power a diverse range of new form factors, from picture frames to car dashboards, offering for the first time a simplified platform from which to achieve convergent interconnected services. In this age of Industrial Revolution, mobile developers will be responsible for most of the innovation on mobile devices, and can act independently from the mobile industry powers-that-be – OEMs or network operators – to get their applications to market. In this age, developers have both power and choice.”

The lion’s share of the report is dedicated to Android and iOS and if you have ever had competitive questions you might find some answers here.

Among the data that captured my interest was:

- 75% of app developer choose their preferred platform by evaluating the market penetration
- 50% of Windows phone developers have an iPhone
- A standalone developer can expect to sell somewhere between 1000-2000 copies of a $1.99 app
- 5% of iPhone developers said there apps had “very good” revenues
- 27% of iPhone developers said their revenues are as projected
- 24% of iPhone developers reported poor revenues
- The App Store has three times more apps than Android Market, 30 times the apps of Symbian and more than 40 times the apps of Flash Lite.
- 21% of developers say they do not get any support, only ten 10% report very good support

You can discuss why Android carries the mind share and I would have to say that it isn’t entirely clear to me, based on this report. The respondents did criticize Android quite a bit, for example that its App Store model that has virtually no flood gates, makes it harder for high-quality apps to compete. Developers complained about the lack of support, which they can’t even get for money, and they highlighted the lack of documentation of open source platforms, which impacts their development.

You can read the entire report here.

Consider this scenario. You in wonderland. Your app among 200,000 other apps in one store. Plenty of customers: More than 3 billion downloads confirmed. A great new iPhone with brisk demand. An iPad that is breaking sales records and is already beyond what many analysts had predicted initially. Soon there may be 100 million customers that are directly connected to the App Store as their only resource for software. You may already be thinking about an early retirement. Think again.

Well, never say never. If you have a great app with mass market appeal becoming a millionaire with a few weeks is not out of the question. There are enough success stories out there. But, of course, there are enough apps out there that get hardly any downloads as well.

So, how exactly do you predict the sales of your future iPhone App? I mean, reasonably?

What should you expect?

Do you aim high or do you aim low?

Heck, what should you aim for at all?

Let’s ignore all those fairy tales of mega-sellers that create instant millionaires for as moment. Of course, it takes a great app, a lot of work, marketing and quite a bit of luck to strike it rich. And if you depend on a very successful app right now while you would be screwed otherwise, you may want to look elsewhere. As it turns out, if you aren’t already a big player, betting on a successful iPhone/iPad app may be a bit like gambling. Or like launching a website that promised gazillions of dollars of ad revenues.

On a reasonable level, there has been a recent article that has caught my attention. It takes a much more conservative look (a very conservative look, in fact) at what the average app earns. It could be a bit frustrating to read, but it may help to adjust some expectations.

The BSN article dives deep into publicly available numbers and draws conclusions by using numbers that may not be accurate, which is why we should take them with a grain of salt. The foundation for the calculated revenue is Apple’s publicly disclosed figures of currently $542 million of revenues in the first half of the year. The app average does not sound too bad, but this is, of course, a distorted view since, as so often, 5% of the paid apps are generally believed to account for 95% of the revenues. 200,000 apps and $542 million would mean that the average app author gets $2710 every six months, which is not that great, but then we know that the majority of downloads are free downloads (according to BSN about 85% of downloads are free, while they represent only 27% of the App Stores stock), but a few apps rake in millions while others just a few dollars.

BSN quotes market researchers who believe that the average price paid for an app is somewhere between $1.90 and $2. The average app gets less than 1000 downloads over a 2-year period and if we apply a median number of $1.95, then the media revenue would be about $1950 per app over two years, or $682 per year after Apple’s 30% cut. Building a business on that would be kinda foolish, of course.

But then, this is really a very conservative scenario. If you are enthusiastic about your app, and you have a powerful social network that can help you market your app, or have other resources to get you going, you may very well end up north of that median. BSN also noted that each iPhone/iPad is estimated to generate about 7 paid downloads and 40 free downloads per year. With 100 million outs in the market soon, that is a substantial opportunity. And it is up to you how you take advantage of this opportunity.